My smartphone journey  Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 was a real trip down a geeky memory lane. It was also a reminder of lessons learned and ways to spot innovations doomed to failure. We can use the success and failure of past products to predict new and future product performance. Economic, political and other business factors can influence the accuracy of these projections, but they can still be quite informative.

As we look to the future of smartphones a number of trends jump out at me:

1. The giant smartphone, also known as the tablet, is a very interesting phenomenon. Following on the heels of the netbook boom, the tablet form factor has captured the public’s imagination. It remains to be seen where the iPad and Android tablets fit in our collective consciousness but one thing we know for sure: people will buy devices that work like giant smartphones and use them for entertainment and basic communications. I have been observing the many in my circle who have purchased tablets. The vast majority of them use the same applications they use on their phones. I have not identified any consistently adopted applications that are tablet only. There are a few who will edit documents and look for more desktop functionality. The vast majority simply like the larger screen. The moral I see from this story is we will continue to see screen size increase. Especially those over forty need the additional size for accessibility reasons. Another interesting question is how far the giant smartphone os can go. Can it continue to scale to full desktop replacement or even entertainment center use? It seems plausible.
2. Flexible and folding screens are almost here. If there was any trend that had the potential for changing everything, this is it. Think about the possibilities afforded by this feature. Pocket sized devices that open into tablet sized workspaces, wearable displays, ergonomically shaped displays, all of these appear to be on the horizon. Our world of flat 4:3 or 16:9 lcds is about to get turned upside down. This technology has the potential to affect every aspect of the industry, a far more disruptive technology than 3d. The impact on smartphones is unclear. Will we migrate to wrist worn displays that communicate with the smartphone in the pocket? Will the folding tablet described earlier be something the public will buy? These are all questions left to be answered. I for one am watching this tech develop with great anticipation.
3. A true cheap smartphone for the masses is just around the corner. We are already seeing very inexpensive devices being introduced by carriers. This trend looks like it will continue and we will likely see what we consider a basic no frills smartphone become the low-end of the future. We will slowly see the end of basic voice only phones, carriers will find it increasingly advantageous to move their entire customer base to either ios or Android. The impact this has on consumer buying habits will be interesting. Will there be a change in the features desired by laptop or tablet buyers if certain needs are met in a cheap device? Will we find people in lower income brackets canceling other services and focusing their income on the portable entertainment device in their pocket? AT&T will be interesting to watch when considering this question. They play in multiple markets and are most prone to protective business practices.